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文章来源：《经济学人》Mar 8th 2023 期 Leaders 栏目
A stubbornly strong economy complicates the fight against inflation
强劲经济使对抗通货膨胀的斗争更加复杂
Too fast to land
着陆过快
Higher interest rates are not sufficiently slowing global growth
加息不足以减缓全球经济增长
Mar 8th 2023
You might have expected the fastest tightening of global monetary policy in 40 years to deal a heavy blow to the world economy. Yet in 2023 it seems to be shrugging off the effects of higher interest rates. Not only is inflation stubbornly high, but economic activity also appears to have quickened. Faster growth may sound good, but it is a headache for policymakers, who are trying to bring about a managed slowdown. And it could mean that a recession, when it eventually strikes, is more painful.
【1】to deal sb/sth a blow, to deal a blow to sb/sth
给某人/某物以打击你可能曾预计，全球40年来最快的货币政策收紧将对世界经济造成沉重打击。然而，在2023年，世界经济似乎正在摆脱加息的影响。不仅通货膨胀居高不下，而且经济活动似乎也加快了。更快的增长听起来不错，但对于正试图实现可控的经济放缓的政策制定者来说，这是一个令人头痛的问题。这可能意味着，当经济衰退最终袭来时，会更加痛苦。
At the end of last year, according to business surveys, manufacturing and services output were both shrinking around the world. Today manufacturing output is flat and services are rebounding. American consumers are spending freely. Both wages and prices continue to grow fast, even in places where they were long stagnant. Japan looks set for a round of bumper wage rises in the spring. In the euro zone the monthly rate of “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, broke records in February. Labour markets are extraordinarily tight. As we report this week, in half of the members of the oecd, a group of mostly rich countries, employment rates are currently at record highs.
根据商业调查显示，去年年底，全球制造业和服务业产出都在萎缩。如今，制造业产出持平，服务业正在反弹。美国消费者正在大肆消费。工资和物价继续快速增长，即使在那些长期停滞不前的地方也是如此。日本看来将在春季迎来一轮大幅度的工资增长。在欧元区，不包括食品和能源价格的“核心”月通胀率在2月份打破了纪录。劳动力市场异常紧张。正如我们本周报道的那样，在经合组织(主要由发达国家组成)半数成员国中，就业率目前处于历史新高。
From equities to credit, financial markets are priced for global economic growth that is above trend. Not so long ago, investors were debating whether the world economy would face a “hard landing” involving a recession, or a “soft landing”, in which inflation was conquered without any downturn. Today they are asking whether the world economy is landing at all.
从股票到信贷，金融市场的定价都是基于高于趋势水平的全球经济增长。就在不久前，投资者还在争论世界经济是会面临衰退的“硬着陆”，还是在没有任何衰退的情况下克服通胀的“软着陆”。如今，他们在问，世界经济是否正在着陆。
There are several reasons for the apparent acceleration. The mini-boom that took hold in the markets late in 2022 stimulated animal spirits. China’s reopening from zero-covid has led to a swift economic recovery which has caused order books in emerging markets to fill up. Falling energy prices in Europe have loosened the screws on its economy. But above all else, consumers and firms in most big economies are in strikingly good financial health. Many households are still flush with savings built up during the covid-19 pandemic; firms managed to lock in low interest rates for long stretches and have yet to suffer much from higher borrowing costs. Only in the most rate-sensitive sectors of the global economy, such as property, is the impact of higher rates clearly visible. In America the economy is so strong that even housing may be recovering slightly.
动物精神（Animal Spirits），指人们可能会做出来的受动物本能驱使的行为，而并非经过思考的理性行为。人们的理性有可能被动物精神支配。动物精神一词最早由凯恩斯在《通论》中提出：人们的行为不仅仅受理性指导，也受其动物精神影响。 这种明显的加速有几个原因。2022年底市场出现的小繁荣刺激了动物精神。中国从疫情中重新放开，导致经济迅速复苏，新兴市场的订单量激增。欧洲不断下跌的能源价格放松了对其经济的控制。但最重要的是，大多数大型经济体的消费者和企业的财务状况都非常好。许多家庭仍然有大量在covid-19大流行期间积累的储蓄; 那些设法在长期锁定低利率的企业，并没有受到更高借贷成本的影响。只有在全球经济中对利率最敏感的行业，如房地产，加息的影响才清晰可见。在美国，经济非常强劲，甚至连房地产市场都可能略有复苏。
The acceleration means that recession is not imminent. But it also means that central banks will have to raise interest rates further if they are to succeed in returning inflation to their 2% targets. On March 7th Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, hinted as much, causing stockmarkets to fall. Policymakers now face two difficult judgments.
这种加速意味着经济衰退并非迫在眉睫。但这也意味着，如果央行想要成功地将通胀恢复到2%的目标，就必须进一步提高利率。3月7日，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也暗示了这一点，这导致股市下跌。政策制定者现在面临两个艰难的判断。
The first is the extent to which monetary tightening to date has yet to have its full effect. Economists often talk up the “long and variable lags” with which interest rates work, but research suggests policy may be working faster today. If the effects of last year’s tightening are already exhausted, much more may be needed. A second judgment is over the persistence of the factors that seem to have immunised much of the economy against rate rises. Eventually, consumers will run out of spare cash and firms will feel the pinch from higher borrowing costs. In Sweden, where interest-rate rises rapidly pass through to households, the economy is suffering.
首先是迄今为止尚未完全发挥作用的货币紧缩政策的程度。经济学家经常谈论利率发挥作用的“长期和可变滞后”效应，但研究表明，如今政策可能起作用的速度更快。如果去年紧缩政策的效果已经耗尽，可能还需要更多措施。第二个判断是，那些似乎让大部分经济体免受加息影响的因素持续存在。最终消费者将耗尽闲置现金，企业将感受到借贷成本上升带来的压力。在瑞典，加息迅速影响到家庭，经济正在遭受冲击。
One thing is clear: the ideal path, where inflation falls without growth faltering much, looks narrower than it did even a month ago. Instead, central banks are increasingly likely to have to choose between tolerating higher inflation or slamming on the brakes for a second year running. ■
有一件事是明确的: 理想的路径，即通胀下降而经济增长不大幅放缓，甚至比一个月前看起来都要窄。相反，各国央行越来越有可能不得不在容忍通胀上升和连续第二年猛踩刹车之间做出选择。■
<hr/>拓展：
【1】soft landing
A soft landing, in economics, is a cyclical slowdown in economic growth that avoids recession. A soft landing is the goal of a central bank when it seeks to raise interest rates just enough to stop an economy from overheating and experiencing high inflation, without causing a severe downturn. Soft landing may also refer to a gradual, relatively painless slowdown in a particular industry or economic sector.
「 KEY TAKEAWAYS （1）A soft landing refers to a moderate economic slowdown following a period of growth. （2）The Federal Reserve and other central banks aim for a soft landing when they raise interest rates to curb inflation. （3）The Fed has a mixed record in accomplishing a soft landing during past rate hiking cycles. （3）The likelihood of a soft landing is reduced by the time lags associated with monetary policy.」
【2】hard landing
A hard landing refers to a marked economic slowdown or downturn following a period of rapid growth. The term &#34;hard landing&#34; comes from aviation, where it refers to the kind of high-speed landing that—while not an actual crash—is a source of stress as well as potential damage and injury. The metaphor is used for high-flying economies that run into a sudden, sharp check on their growth, such as a monetary policy intervention meant to curb inflation. Economies that experience a hard landing often slip into a stagnant period or even recession. |
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发表于 2023-4-19 19:20:50
